New Study Suggests Earth’s Warming Exceeds 1.5 Degrees Celsius
According to a recent study on sea sponges in the Caribbean, researchers have found evidence that Earth may have already surpassed the 1.5 degrees Celsius mark of warming. The study, which analyzed 300 years of ocean temperature records preserved within the sea sponges, suggests that a 2-degree Celsius increase could be imminent by the end of the decade. The findings, published in Nature Climate Change, highlight the urgency of addressing global warming.
While the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change’s Paris Agreement aimed to limit global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius since the Industrial Revolution, scientists emphasize that it is crucial to keep global warming as far below this figure as possible. Unfortunately, the likelihood of achieving this goal is diminishing, as indicated by climate scientists.
The study focused on samples of sclerosponge skeletons found in the eastern Caribbean, a region characterized by less natural temperature variability compared to other locations. The analysis revealed that the pre-industrial period, from 1700 to 1790 and 1840 to 1860, experienced stable temperatures with a cooling gap attributed to volcanic activity. However, the sea sponges demonstrated a clear emergence of warming related to human activity starting from the mid-1860s, about 80 years earlier than instrumental sea surface records indicated.
Sclerosponges, a long-lived species, possess calcium carbonate skeletons that record chemical changes, making them a natural archive of ocean temperatures. The study’s findings indicate a significant shift in temperature patterns over the past century and a half.
The researchers also emphasized the implications of their findings for current projections of global warming. They estimated that Earth may have already experienced a 1.5 degrees Celsius increase in warming, with a mean surface warming of 1.7 degrees Celsius occurring between 2018 and 2022.
During a news conference, Malcolm McCulloch, the study’s lead author and a professor of isotope geobiochemistry at the University of Western Australia, noted that the industrial era of warming began earlier than previously believed, starting in the mid-1860s. This means that global mean surface temperatures have been half a degree higher than the accepted estimates.
It is important to note that the sea sponges studied are unique to the Caribbean. Divers had to venture up to 100 meters below the sea surface to retrieve these valuable samples. The study’s findings contribute valuable insights into the realities of global warming and emphasize the need for immediate action to mitigate its effects.
